SIOUX FALLS, S.D. (KELO) — The U.S. will harvest billions of bushels of soybeans this year but what happens when at least $12 billion market for these soybeans is gone?
The prices drop. November soybeans were down 5.75 cents at $10.08 per bushel, Successful Farming said. December corn was down 2.5 cents at $4.19 and one-half per bushel, Successful Farming said
So far, China, which accounted for $12.6 billion of all U.S. soybean exports in 2024, has not ordered any soybeans since May, in large part because of U.S. tariffs and the general trade war.
Dene Doty, who farms near Alcester and Hudson, has been farming for at least 50 years.
“I’m currently watching what’s going on (with tariffs),” Doty said. “It’s political.”
And it’s not new. “We’re used to this. We’ve seen it before,” Doty said of market slumps and political influences. “That’s the way it is. It was that way back in the 1980s.”
An estimated 250,000 to 300,000 U.S. farms went out of business during the 1980s farm crisis, fueled by high interest rates for farm loans, high input costs and low prices. A 1979 grain embargo on the Soviet Union under President Jimmy Carter helped spur the farm losses.
“Two years ago, the prices were terrible and we had too much supply,” Doty said.
He will weather this soybean market, “but a lot of younger kids… they might hurt,” Doty said.
Scott Kolousek is primarily a cattle producer but also produces grain in Jerauld County. “I have mixed feelings on tariffs,” Kolousek said. “I think a tariff on cattle is needed like the country of origin (that identifies where beef comes from).” Tariffs would help protect U.S. farmers from imported beef, he said.
“Cattle prices are good now because of supply and demand,” Kolousek said. Of the past 12 years, cattle prices have only been good for two years, he said.
Similarities to 2018, 2019
A trade war with China in 2018 and 2019 under President Donald Trump’s administration prompted a sharp decline in soybean exports to that country.
In the seven years prior to 2018, an average of 28% of U.S. soybean production was exported to China, according to the American Soybean Association. During those seven years that 28% accounted for 60% of the total U.S. soybean exports. By the marketing year of 2023/2024, 22% of the U.S. soybean production was exported to China.
Farm sales to China decreased $19.5 billion in 2017 to just $9 billion in 2018.
Trump directed the federal government to pay farmers at least of $28 billion to offset their losses from Chinese trade retaliation.
Production keeps increasing for corn, soybeans
U.S. farmers planted 63.1 million acres of soybeans in 1985. The harvest average was 34.1 bushels per acre.
Farmers in the U.S. planted 80.3 million acres of soybeans this year and average harvest is expected to be 53.5 bushels per acre, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) crop report for Sept. 12.
The USDA reported the corn yield at 186.7 bushels per acre, which is up 7.4 bushels from 2024. The area to be harvested for grain is forecast at 90.0 million acres.
If realized, the harvested area would be the highest since 1933 and the planted area for grains of 98.7 million acres would be the highest since 1936, according to the USDA
While no record highs are expected in South Dakota, records could be reached in Iowa and Minnesota, the USDA reported
The June deroche near Hudson damaged some of Doty’s corn and soybeans.
“A lot of farmers have been chopping corn for silage,” Doty said of the area. He expected the corn that can be harvested to be about 150 bushels per acre.
The soybean harvest will be less than expected, Doty said.
To Kolousek, the U.S. has a production problem.
“America produces too many soybeans and corn,” he said. “We can’t rely on exports all the time.”
Farmers have been encouraged to put marginal land into production for soybeans and corn, in part because of subsidized insurance, Kolousek said.
Corn and soybean production have increased but the markets and demand are there, Doty said.
“You can’t hardly buy anything that soybeans aren’t a part of,” Doty said. Some of the potential uses for grain may have stalled slightly but more will be found, he said.
Although China isn’t buying U.S. soybeans right now, the corn export market looks good, according to the USDA.
Exports are projected at a record 3.0 billion bushels for corn.
Records are forecast for corn harvest in Iowa and Minnesota but not for South Dakota.
Whether or not farm income increases this year depends on only on harvest per bushel, prices and export markets but also on governmental assistance.
Generally, farm income is still expected to increase for fiscal year 2025. Cattle prices and government assistance are the two major reason.
As of Monday, government payments of $40.5 million to farmers were expecteded in FY 2025 but that’s for past losses in 2023 and 2024.
Still, Financial Content is not projecting corn prices to increase above the 2021-2023 peaks.
“Corn may stabilize around $4.25-$4.55 per bushel, reminiscent of the 2015-2019 period,,” Financial Content said on Monday.
While export markets for corn are projeted to be stronger than once predicted, it will still lag behind 2024, according to multiple sources.
The U.S. is not the only large producer of soybean and corns which also adds to the available stock and influences the market.
Brazil’s 2025 soybean production is projected at 175 million tons. China’s corn production was projected at 298 million bushels.
Diversify
Kolousek said grain production should be few soybeans and more grain such as oats and others.
Farming is a boom or bust industry, “that’s why you need to diversify,” Doty said. He used to raise cattle and hogs and some other crops but as he prepares to retire, he mostly been a grain farmer, he said.
If farmers have multiple sources of income and market options, it can help keep them going when other income is tight, Doty said.
