Voters in Guinea go to the polls on Sunday to elect a new president as the leader of the ruling military junta, Col. Mamady Doumbouya, seeks legitimacy after a four-year transition in which he tightened his grip on the West African country.
Colonel Doumbouya, who came to power after staging a coup in 2021, had promised to step down after organizing the elections. But several deadlines to return the country to civilian rule have passed, and he introduced a new Constitution to allow him to run for president.
Like the leaders in more than half a dozen African countries that held elections this year, Colonel Doumbouya prevented key opponents from running. They include two former prime ministers, Cellou Dalein Diallo and Sidya Touré, and the president he ousted, Alpha Condé, Guinea’s first democratically elected president. Mr. Condé’s decision to eliminate term limits allowed him to run and win a third term, leading to widespread protests.
Abdoulaye Yéro Baldé, an economist who served as higher education minister in the ousted government, is seen as the strongest challenger to Colonel Doumbouya. “The environment is not conducive, but we have to stand our ground and defend our rights,” Mr. Baldé said in an interview of the current state of the country.
“Journalists are afraid to talk,” he added. “People disappear for no reason. Media houses are shut down. People are getting killed.”
What are the stakes?
The election is taking place as a global spotlight has turned on Guinea because of its recent mining breakthroughs amid the race for critical minerals.
Last month, Colonel Doumbouya began Simandou, one of the largest iron ore mining projects in the world. It took more than 30 years to push forward the Simandou project amid ownership disputes, political instability and the high cost of developing the mines. But it was eventually done at an estimated cost of more than $11.6 billion.
“The Simandou project is at the center of Doumbouya’s platform and is definitely a promising initiative,” said Aissatou Kante, a policy researcher at the Institute for Security Studies, a research organization based in South Africa. “The project is expected to bring several hundred million dollars a year and give a significant boost to the country’s G.D.P.”
Guinea is also the world’s top exporter of bauxite, a metal vital for planes and car production.
Analysts say that whoever wins the election will face not only the challenge of turning Guinea’s mineral wealth into real benefits for a population experiencing widespread poverty, but also the delicate task of managing the interests of global powers as the competition for critical minerals heats up.
Unlike many of its neighbors in the Sahel who have turned to Russia and cut ties with Western countries, Guinea’s junta has broadly courted investors while not aligning with any global power.
“The junta’s approach is pragmatic: Take capital where it comes, but keep no single partner indispensable,” said Vincent Rouget, the head political and business risk analyst for sub‑Saharan Africa at Control Risks, a security and strategic intelligence consultancy. “This strategy has paid off so far, and we expect it to continue.”
What are some other major issues?
Colonel Doumbouya has presented himself as a builder, overseeing road expansions and new railways in a country where more than half of the population live below the poverty line, according to the World Bank.
His regime, however, has cracked down heavily on dissent and has released little public information on mining contracts. The concealment has fueled concerns about whether the money generated from the ongoing expansion of bauxite production and the Simandou iron ore project will be managed properly.
The human rights situation in Guinea has also deteriorated sharply under the junta’s rule. At least 47 protesters have been killed since 2021, according to Amnesty International. The junta cracked down on sporadic protests over the high cost of living and power cuts before banning demonstrations altogether.
Still, analysts said, the election is a small bright spot in a region increasingly led by military rulers, most of whom, including in Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso, have recently shut down demands for a return to civilian rule.
“Even an imperfect election can narrow uncertainty, and it should buy the administration some time to plan policy,” Mr. Rouget said.
What is the state of the race?
Analysts said Colonel Doumbouya, who has not bothered to campaign during the election, will most likely secure an easy victory since the remaining opposition parties are fragmented and weak.
But Mr. Baldé, who is viewed as Colonel Doumbouya’s strongest rival, says he still has a chance.
“People are surprised how I am able to motivate large crowds,” said Mr. Baldé, who did not garner any public endorsements from the heavyweight political figures barred from running. “If I had listened to the people, I would not have seen the reality,” he added. “People want to get rid of the regime. It is a dictatorship. Guineans are looking for hope.”
Colonel Doumbouya laid the groundwork for what many see as an easy path to victory.
Guinea’s new Constitution, introduced by Colonel Doumbouya, requires presidential candidates to live in the country. Under that condition, Mr. Diallo, Mr. Condé and Mr. Touré are all ineligible to run because they have been in exile since the coup.
Ahead of the vote, Colonel Doumbouya extended the term of the Supreme Court, which is expected to announce the election winner. In a departure from previous practice, the elections will be overseen by a government ministry rather than an independent electoral commission, which was dissolved after the coup.
“There’s essentially no real political competition,” said Ms. Kante, the policy researcher. “The main question is really about voter turnout, and if it’s high, it will give the incumbent president a stronger legitimacy.”
When are election results expected?
The voting is scheduled to begin at 8 a.m. Sunday local time, and polls close at 6 p.m.
Provisional results are expected several days later, and the final results are expected to be announced by the Supreme Court within two weeks.
Abdourahmane Diallo contributed reporting from Conakry, Guinea.
Saikou Jammeh is a reporter and researcher for The Times based in Dakar, Senegal.
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