CONSUMERS may be reconsidering their morning trips to Starbucks or Dunkin’ soon.
The coffeehouse giants, along with privately-owned shops nationwide, are preparing for changes later this year.
Amid the continued adjustments to global reciprocal tariffs from the Trump administration, coffee could be severely impacted, meaning considerable price increases passed onto customers.
For example, Brazil imports now face a 50% tariff as of August 6, which includes coffee beans, per Reuters.
The United States has been a top importer of Brazilian coffee for several years.
It brought in about 7.6 million bags in 2024, accounting for 16.7% of Brazil’s total coffee exports, per Coffee Intelligence.
Brazil is, in general, one of the top coffee exporters in the world, along with Vietnam, Colombia, Indonesia, and Ethiopia, as detailed in data from the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service.
With the 50% tariff, business owners like Greg Lefcourt, who operates Beleza Coffee in Boulder, Colorado, have adjusted their sourcing to avoid the potential cost uptick.
“Historically speaking, coffee has been exempt from tariffs until now,” Lefcourt told NBC affiliate KUSA this month.
“We don’t know if it’s going to double, triple the cost of beans to the importer, to the roaster, to the coffee shop buying the beans, to the customer — but ultimately a tariff will trickle down to the end user, which is the consumer.”
Lefcourt also said the entire coffee industry is in the midst of ongoing conversations with the government.
“We have a lot of coffee professionals coast to coast and a lot of coffee organizations speaking with the government and asking, begging, pleading that they leave this industry alone,” he told the outlet.
Economics professor Kishore Kulkarni also explained that while the price jump may not be 50%, any significant increase could turn coffee shop regulars away and leave them reaching for substitutes.
“I think there is a good chance we won’t pay 50% more, buy you never know,” Kulkarni said while speaking with KUSA.
“If not Brazilian coffee, we have Colombian coffee and all kinds of other coffees. Consumers have to decide, is it really worth paying that much, or should I go to a substitute?”
Kulkarni also argued that the tariffs are more of a political tool to urge other countries to negotiate.
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Still, prices have been on the rise for milk, cups, labor, and insurance since 2020, according to Lefcourt.
“We’ve basically just been taking hits since the pandemic,” the coffee shop owner explained.
“We want to make sure that the everyday coffee consumer and our everyday customer is taken care of. We’re going to do what needs to happen in order to continue to serve coffee.”
Former Starbucks CFO Rachel Ruggeri also detailed concerns in January that “higher prices to an already pressured consumer” could have a serious impact on the brand.
The United States barely produces its own coffee as of 2025.
Hawaii is the most prominent domestic source for coffee and cocoa beans, according to the Financial Times.
Kona Haque, research head at commodity trader ED&F Man, told the publication that there will be an imbalance in supply and demand as the US is the “ultimate nation of coffee drinkers” but “simply cannot produce these products.”
Americans have been urged to buy up several products to save money since the original global reciprocal tariffs announcement was made in April.
Packages are also about to get more pricey starting August 29.
