European Union leaders are convening on Thursday for a meeting that will show whether they can face head-on many of the largest challenges confronting them: an aggressive Russia, an increasingly unfriendly United States, and a costly land war in Ukraine.
Officials hope that by the end of the European Council meeting that kicks off Thursday morning in Brussels, the 27 nations of the European Union will agree to use Russian government assets frozen in Europe to make a huge loan to finance Ukraine and its war effort in 2026 and 2027.
But the deal is expected to be contentious, and it could still fail.
Belgium, where most of the 210 billion euros (about $247 billion) worth of assets in Europe are frozen, has voiced stark opposition to the plan for months, laying out a series of demands. The nation wants other European countries to share in the possible legal risk if Russia retaliates.
It also wants other nations that hold smaller sums of frozen assets to use those pots of money to make loans. After Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, Russian state savings were also frozen in Britain and France, among other places.
European Union officials, ambassadors, and leaders from across the bloc have met frantically over recent days to try to reach workable compromises. It was not clear, headed into the gathering, that it would be enough. And while many analysts speculated that Belgium would eventually come around at the 11th hour — dragging out the drama in part because it is playing well in domestic politics — leaders had no obvious game plan if not.
‘Europe’s Independence Moment’
Officials have said the meeting of the European Council, which brings together heads of state and government from across Europe, will last until a decision on funding Ukraine is reached. There is already speculation that it could stretch on for days; some officials have even suggested it could last until Christmas.
There is an alternative on the table if the frozen asset loan fails — a loan backed by the European Union’s own budget. But that would require unanimous support. Hungary, which has maintained friendly relations with the Kremlin, has voiced opposition, making that plan less realistic, and it has not been the focus of negotiations for weeks.
The stakes around reaching some agreement to funnel cash to Ukraine are towering. Peace negotiations among Ukraine, the United States and Russia have kicked into high gear, and an ambitious funding plan could put Kyiv into a stronger deal-making position.
Putting money on the table could also reassert Europe’s relevance, at a time when it has struggled to illustrate that it is a decisive and powerful actor that deserves a seat in discussions as the future of the continent is decided. The United States has made it clear that Europe needs to have skin in the game when it comes to funding the embattled nation.
Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Union’s executive arm, told lawmakers on Wednesday that this week’s summit would be a chance to show that Europe is focused on its strategic interests.
“This is Europe’s independence moment,” she said.
Analysts warn that failure at this juncture would illustrate that the European Union — clunky and consensus-based by design — is not meeting an intense moment that calls for decisive action.
Down to the Wire?
The danger is that this week’s feverish bout of behind-the-scenes tweaking may not be enough to convince Belgium to support the frozen asset plan.
Member states agreed on Friday to indefinitely freeze Russia’s assets held in the bloc, a first step toward making a loan to Ukraine backed by those funds. But Belgium, Bulgaria, Italy and Malta did so only grudgingly. They urged the bloc to continue exploring alternative options that pose fewer risks.
Belgium is worried about the plan for a few reasons. About €185 billion of the €210 billion total held in the European Union are at the Brussels-based financial company Euroclear. Under the plan, that money would be used to back a €90 billion loan, parceled out over 2026 and 2027, with the possibility of more loans later.
If Russia pursues legal action because its money is being used in this way, Belgium is worried that it will be on the hook. Last Friday the Russian Central Bank said it had filed a lawsuit in Moscow against Euroclear, essentially a warning to European officials if they go ahead with the plan.
Belgian leaders are also worried that a move to use the frozen assets could spook international investors, making it seem as if their money is not safe if it is saved in Europe.
Some analysts think Belgium will still come around at the last minute.
“There will be a deal, but not until two minutes to midnight,” said Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, a senior fellow at the economic think tank Bruegel in Brussels.
If Belgium remains staunchly opposed, the frozen asset loan plan could still technically pass. It requires only a substantial majority of E.U. votes to cross the finish line. But European leaders have been loathe to even consider forcing it through over Belgian objections.
Ukraine’s Money Woes
Still, experts and officials have said that failing to come up with a funding plan for Ukraine this week is not an option.
European Union officials estimate that the nation will begin to run out of cash by around the end of March. Given the time it will take to finalize details, a solution is needed imminently.
The trans-Atlantic backdrop also makes action urgent. The White House and Russia have frequently left Europe out of discussions over Ukraine’s future, in part because the Trump administration perceives the bloc as weak and slow.
And the Trump administration has recently made it inescapable how negatively it views the European Union. The administration warned in a national security strategy that Europe faces “civilizational erasure,” charging that the bloc and other transnational bodies “undermine political liberty” and national sovereignty, allow uncontrolled immigration and place the continent on a path that will leave it “unrecognizable in 20 years or less.”
European Union leaders want to answer those accusations by showing they can move forcefully.
“It’s a break or take week,” Kaja Kallas, the European Union’s top diplomat, told reporters outside of a meeting in Brussels on Monday.
Jeanna Smialek is the Brussels bureau chief for The Times.
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