Thai Airways International’s (THAI) share price has increased by over 400% since resuming trading on the Stock Exchange of Thailand on August 4, attracting significant investor interest.
This surge followed the airline’s second-quarter financial results, which revealed normalised profits exceeding market expectations by 465% year-on-year. This was attributed to reduced fuel costs and interest expenses as debt diminished under a business rehabilitation plan.
Analysts predict a slowdown in earnings for the latter half of 2025 but have increased THAI’s net profit forecasts for this year and 2026 due to rising travel demand and expanded routes.
An analyst from KGI Securities, Parin Kitchatornpitak, speaking to Bangkok Post, noted a shift in THAI’s sales mix. The airline saw an increase in network passengers from 6% in 2023 to 15% in 2024 and 21% in the first half of 2025, while point-to-point passengers decreased to 79% from 94% in 2023 and 85% in 2024.
This shift is seen as beneficial during the slow season. The airline’s available seat kilometres increased by 15% year-on-year, due to enhanced aircraft utilisation and resumed European routes such as Oslo, Milan, and Brussels, alongside more frequent regional Asian routes.
Pasakorn Wangvivatchareon of Asia Plus Securities reported that the brokerage raised THAI’s normalised profit forecast by 15% this year to 32 billion baht, reflecting a growth of 49%, and to 33 billion baht next year, marking a 2% increase year-on-year.
The only way is up
He stated that this year’s profit growth is expected to peak, driven by lower operating and interest costs, and anticipates a return to normal growth from 2026.
Maybank Securities upgraded THAI’s earnings projections by 13% for 2025 and 7% for 2026, citing improved cost management, especially in maintenance and employee benefits.
Analyst Boonyakorn Amornsank highlighted that first-half earnings reached 56% of the full-year forecast, with expectations of a second-half contraction due to seasonal factors.
Chai Eamsiri, THAI’s Chief Executive, expressed the aim to reposition the airline as a valued stock for long-term yields rather than a speculative option. Before resuming trading, Chai indicated plans to double the fleet to 150 aircraft by 2033, aiming to capitalise on Asia’s travel boom.
The carrier plans to expand its fleet to 93 aircraft next year from 78 in the first quarter of this year, a reduction from 103 before rehabilitation. The Central Bankruptcy Court permitted THAI to exit its rehabilitation programme on June 16, after the company entered court-supervised rehabilitation in May 2020 with debts totalling 400 billion baht.
Expansion plans
THAI intends to add three more aircraft this year, focusing on expanding Chinese and Indian routes by late 2025 or early 2026. Additionally, 15 more A321neos are expected to be delivered starting next year. To bridge capacity gaps before new aircraft arrive, THAI plans to lease eight to ten wide-body aircraft for six years.
The airline aims to double flight frequency on Guangzhou and Beijing routes and resume services to Xiamen, Chongqing, and Changsha, with new routes to Wuhan and Shenzhen. Chai noted that Chinese routes attract not only Chinese passengers but also European and Australian travellers transiting through Bangkok, with load factors averaging 70% in the low season and 80% in the high season.
THAI also plans new services to Gaya, India, and several domestic routes. Chai acknowledged potential delays in flight and route expansion due to challenges in acquiring additional aircraft, particularly wide-body models for expanded European routes. Leased aircraft will be used until the purchased planes arrive in 2027.
Chai admitted the airline might face a “significant seat shortage” in the next two years, which could halt new route and flight openings if additional wide-body planes are not leased by mid-2026.
Boonyakorn from Maybank noted THAI’s passenger revenue has fully recovered and surpassed pre-covid levels, thanks to resumed scheduled flights, new routes, strong load factors, increased demand, and disciplined pricing.
However, he warned of potential aircraft delivery delays, especially for the B787-9 model, and limited cost-cutting opportunities affecting THAI’s stock sentiment.
Smaller fleet
He mentioned that management expects the B787-9 delivery to be delayed beyond 2027, affecting THAI’s competitiveness due to its smaller fleet size compared to rivals. THAI’s aircraft utilisation rate of 13.6 hours daily in the first half of 2025 is significantly higher than the 12 hours pre-covid, with management aiming to maintain this level.
Other risks include potential Middle East conflict escalation, OPEC production cuts raising oil prices, and weak global economic conditions slowing travel demand. An early aviation industry recovery could reduce passenger yields on airfares.
The story Thai Airways shares soar post-trading resumption, strong profits as seen on Thaiger News.
