Predictions abound about which jobs will be automated by AI—but contrary to popular belief, a tech takeover isn’t in full swing yet. In an end-of-year note to investors, Vanguard set the record straight: careers that research claims are most susceptible to AI are actually thriving, not dying out.
“The approximately 100 occupations most exposed to AI automation are actually outperforming the rest of the labor market in terms of job growth and real wage increases,” the Vanguard report revealed. “This suggests that current AI systems are generally enhancing worker productivity and shifting workers’ tasks toward higher-value activities.”
Instead of displacing employees from their jobs, AI is helping humans perform better at work, leading to some career wins. The job growth rate of occupations with high AI exposure—including office clerks, HR assistants, and data scientists—increased from 1% in pre-COVID-19 years (2015 through 2019) to 1.7% in 2023 and beyond, according to Vanguard’s research. Meanwhile, the growth rate of all other jobs declined from 1.1% to 0.8% over the same period. Workers in AI-prone roles are getting pay bumps, too; the wage growth of jobs with high AI exposure shot up from 0.1% pre-COVID to 3.8% post-pandemic (and post-ChatGPT). For all other jobs, compensation only marginally increased from 0.5% to 0.7%.
“AI will stand out among other megatrends, given its capacity to transform the labor market and drive productivity,” the researchers wrote. “The ongoing wave of AI-driven physical investment is expected to be a powerful force, reminiscent of past periods of major capital expansion such as the development of railroads in the mid-19th century and the late-1990s information and telecommunications surge.”
But not all roles will emerge from this AI growth spurt unscathed. The study notes that some occupations have withstood job losses due to AI automation, but it stipulates that this is a “common outcome of technological disruption.” As technology improves production and reallocates employee time to higher-value tasks, a smaller workforce is needed to deliver services. It’s a process that has “distinct labor market implications,” Vanguard writes, just like the many tech revolutions that predate AI.
“Much like electricity, railroads, and the internet before it, AI is driving a structural shift that demands significant capital investment to retool the economy for a new era,” the report explained.
Young entry-level workers are being hit hardest—but AI isn’t to blame, yet
Vanguard painted a relatively positive picture of humans coexisting with AI, but confirmed one unfortunate theory about the labor market: the kids are not alright. The report found that young, entry-level professionals are up against distressing career headwinds
“Entry-level employment challenges reflect the disproportionate burden that a labor market with a low hiring rate can have on younger workers,” the Vanguard note said. “This dynamic is observed across all occupations, even those largely unaffected by AI.”
Opportunities have been shrinking for years thanks to the advent of chatbots and AI agents. Since ChatGPT’s rise in 2022, U.S. job postings across have dropped by 32%, according to data from the Federal Reserve. Employers are increasingly relying on AI tools and automation to boost efficiency—and young workers are taking the biggest hit. While general employment continues to thrive, job postings in AI-exposed fields for early-career Gen Zers aged 22 to 25 have decreased by 13% since 2022, according to a 2025 Stanford University report.
To make matters worse, major employers are shrinking their Gen Z headcounts. The percentage of young staffers aged 21 to 25 was cut in half at technology companies between the start of 2023 and July of this year, according to data from compensation management software company Pave. These young workers once accounted for 15% of the workforce at large public tech firms—two years later, they accounted for only 6.8%. While many people see these labor disruptions and point their fingers at AI, experts told Fortune these layoffs could stem from a whole host of issues: navigating economic uncertainty, resolving pandemic-era overhiring, and bracing for tariffs. Vanguard isn’t convinced that an AI is the reason for Gen Z’s career obstacles.
“While statistics abound about large language models beating humans in computer programming and other aptitude tests, these models still struggle with real-world scenarios that require nuanced decision-making,” the Vanguard report continued. “Significant progress is needed before we see wider and measurable disruption in labor markets.”
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