NATO leaders are widely expected to give U.S. President Donald Trump a win in a few weeks as they fall in line over his demand that allies sharply increase defense spending.
The main questions now are how to reach the new target and how long it will take.
Alliance defense ministers are in Brussels Thursday to discuss a proposal to increase NATO’s spending goal from the current 2 percent of GDP to 5 percent. That is likely to be approved by national leaders at a high-stakes summit in The Hague later this month.
However, diplomats said, the deadline to actually reach the objective is still undecided; NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte is proposing 2032.
“We are currently negotiating within the North Atlantic Council the timelines and what’s included in the 5 percent, both from a core defense standpoint and also defense-related and security-related spending,” the U.S. ambassador to NATO, Matthew Whitaker, told reporters on Wednesday.
“But let me be clear on this, we cannot have another Wales pledge style where a lot of allies don’t meet their commitments until year 10 or year 11,” he added, referring to the 2014 decision at a NATO summit in Wales to set the 2 percent goal — the alliance’s response to Russia’s illegally annexing Crimea from Ukraine.
NATO’s most recent figures show that 23 of its 32 members are on track to spend at least 2 percent by this summer — a sharp jump from the three countries spending that much when the target was established. But hitting that number has been a struggle for many countries used to low defense spending after the Cold War.
Spain and Italy said they will reach 2 percent of GDP only this year, whereas Canada aims to do so by 2027, five years earlier than originally promised. Getting to 5 percent will be even more difficult, despite the growing threat posed by an aggressive Russia.
On Thursday, defense ministers are also expected to agree on updated NATO capability targets — meaning top secret objectives regarding military equipment that allies need to have and operate.
“We are going to take a huge leap forward, enhance deterrence and defense by agreeing new capability targets,” Rutte said on Wednesday, referring to air and missile defense, long range weapons, maneuverable land formations, and logistics as top priorities.
Timelines and definitions
NATO allies have gone a long way in the past few months to placate the U.S. president.
When Trump first floated the 5 percent figure in January, the scale of the jump seemed ludicrous in many NATO capitals. Half a year later there is growing agreement on hitting that goal.
Earlier this week, 14 NATO countries, most on the eastern flank close to Russia, publicly backed the 5 percent target. Germany, Europe’s largest economy, has done the same. French President Emmanuel Macron is open to 3.5 percent of GDP on military spending.
However, Trump’s likely political victory will be only partial: The 5 percent figure is divided into 3.5 percent for “hard military spending” — putting allies at the same level as U.S. expenditure, which is around 3.4 percent of GDP. The remaining 1.5 percent will be used for defense-related spending on things like military mobility, infrastructure and cybersecurity.
The exact split of what kind of spending fits into which category is still being hashed out. It’s also unclear if military aid to Ukraine will be included in one of the definitions.
The timeline is also being negotiated, with some countries considering Rutte’s 2032 deadline too early while others worry it’s not fast enough.
“Reaching 3.5 percent next year or 3.5 percent in 2030 isn’t the same effort: It remains to be seen whether there will be review clauses or not,” said Camille Grand, a former NATO assistant secretary-general who’s now with the European Council on Foreign Relations.
“There are a whole series of somewhat important details that would help give Trump a political victory with the 5 percent while remaining more or less manageable for NATO allies,” he added.
Denmark’s Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen and Lithuanian Defense Minister Dovilė Šakalienė said this week that NATO allies couldn’t afford to wait seven more years to boost military expenditure.
When asked about the 2032 target, Whitaker said: “We are asking all allies to increase their budgets as far as they can and as quickly as they can, understanding that this is not the United States setting this timeline, it is our adversaries.”
But the U.K. may push for a longer horizon as Prime Minister Keir Starmer faces extreme budgetary pressures at home and failed this week to commit to a timeline for reaching his “ambition” of spending 3 percent of GDP on defense.
In conversations with allies, British officials have stressed they’re not interested in making “unrealistic” pledges that they can’t reach. “We are only going to commit to what we can deliver,” said a British government aide.
A seven-year timeline will also be difficult for some of the nations struggling with the current 2 percent target — such as Spain, Italy or Luxembourg. According to one diplomat, they would prefer a later deadline, possibly stretching to 10 years.
Esther Webber contributed reporting.
This article has been updated.
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