The Jeffrey Epstein files have become a significant liability for Donald Trump, prompting him to curtail domestic travel and raising Republican concerns about his impact on the 2026 midterm elections. Political analysts predict substantial Democratic gains, with one forecasting a 70 percent probability that Democrats will recapture the House.
According to the Guardian’s David Smith, Trump’s mounting troubles suggest he is disengaged from active governance as GOP lawmakers nervously monitor their political futures tied to his declining approval ratings.
Larry Jacobs, director of the Center for the Study of Politics and Governance at the University of Minnesota, observed, “This is a guy whose legacy may well be the political collapse of Republicans in this era. Put another way, rather than asking who is going to be the inheritor of the Trump mantle and the so-called MAGA movement, we may be talking in a year or so about which candidates can escape the odious distinction of having been connected with Trump.”
Political scientists point to unaddressed voter economic concerns and Trump’s tariff policies as major liabilities. Wendy Schiller, a political scientist at Brown University, characterized Trump’s tariffs as “the greatest self-inflicted wound that the president has brought on himself and the Republicans.”
Trump’s travel schedule reflects his reduced domestic engagement. This year he has held only seven rallies, instead focusing on overseas trips and visits to his luxury golf properties. The Atlantic magazine described him as “the bubble-wrapped president.”
The Epstein files continue to roil the administration. Smith noted, “With the Jeffrey Epstein files also casting a long shadow, Trump appears increasingly out of touch. For years he traveled the country drawing big crowds to rollicking campaign rallies where he would meet local officials.”
Multiple Republican lawmakers have announced retirements ahead of the midterms. Schiller added, “America, at the end of the day, is not an extremist country. If you go too far left, voters are unhappy; if you go too far right, voters are unhappy. This has been true for quite some time so what we’re seeing is voters expressing a sense of frustration, trying to send a signal, at least to the Republican party if not to the president: we’re not happy with the direction you’re taking us.”
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