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Before he took the reins at USC, Lincoln Riley had a reputation as something of a road warrior. It wasn’t until his third season at Oklahoma that Riley’s team had lost a true road game with him as head coach. During five years with the Sooners, he won 17 of 21 on the road.
But four years into his tenure as the Trojans’ coach, Riley’s once-sterling road reputation feels like a relic of a past life. Until USC won at Nebraska earlier this month, Riley hadn’t beaten a team on the road that finished better than .500 since November 2022, when his Trojans toppled UCLA at the Rose Bowl. Otherwise, outside of L.A., USC’s only road victory against a quality team under Riley came against Oregon State … in his fourth game leading the Trojans.
Never have the stakes been so high for Riley than they are this week, as No. 15 USC heads to No. 8 Oregon with its College Football Playoff hopes hinging on a huge road victory. Still, it’s hard to ignore how starkly different Riley’s Trojans have looked when challenged away from home.
USC has been the best offense in college football when inside the Coliseum. But in four road games, USC is averaging 18 fewer points and two fewer yards per attempt on offense. Its red zone touchdown rate plummets 25%, while its third-down conversion rate drops 16% on the road. Simply put, by any measure, Riley’s offense has been much worse away from home this season.
That disparity starts at quarterback. At home, Jayden Maiava has been one of the best quarterbacks in all of college football this season. The junior has completed 74% of his passes at home and averaged 10.7 yards per attempt at the Coliseum, both of which rank top 10 in the nation. He’s accounted for 18 total touchdowns to just two turnovers at home, while his quarterback rating puts him in the rarefied air of Heisman contenders such as Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza and Ohio State’s Julian Sayin.
That version of Maiava, however, has yet to take his show on the road. In five true road games as the Trojans’ starting quarterback, Maiava has completed fewer than 57% of his passes. His average yards per attempt tumbles nearly three yards. He’s committed more turnovers and been sacked more often.
USC can’t afford for that to be the case Saturday, if it hopes to hold onto its Playoff hopes. But while recent history might be against his Trojans, Riley reminded this week that he’s not new to contending like this late in November.
“This is what I’m used to, man,” RIley said. “It’s good to be right there again, no question.
”… This is the time of year that I enjoy most.”
Here’s what to watch as USC clashes with Oregon on Saturday at 12:30 p.m. PST (CBS, Paramount+):
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Battle of backfields
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Both of these high-powered offenses are at their best when their rushing attacks are rolling. And no team in the Big Ten has gotten rolling on the ground this season quite like Oregon. Each of the Ducks’ trio of backs — Noah Whittington, Jordon Davison and Dierre Hill Jr. — is averaging at least seven yards per carry. Altogether, they’ve busted 28 rushes of 20 yards or more, second-most in the nation
“It doesn’t matter what back they put back there,” defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn said. “All their backs have the ability to make a big play. They can all create. They all break tackles. They’re good in space. They use them in the passing game as well. They really just make you defend the entire field.”
USC’s defense hasn’t exactly been reliable in that regard this season. It’s giving up 200 rushing yards per game over the past four weeks, and outside of the trip to Notre Dame, USC hasn’t faced a backfield like Oregon’s this season. Notre Dame, for what it’s worth, tallied for more than 300 yards on the Trojans front.
It’ll be just as critical for USC to establish the run — if only to keep Oregon’s offense off the field. The Trojans won’t have Waymond Jordan back as hoped, but walk-on King Miller continues to be a revelation. He’s averaging 7.26 rush yards per attempt this season, good for third in the Big Ten.
First, second and fourth in that category? All Oregon running backs.
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Explosive plays
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Riley’s offenses have always lived on big, explosive plays. Oregon’s defense just happens to thrive at stopping them.
No team in college football has given up fewer plays of 20-plus yards this season than Oregon. The Ducks defense has yielded just 17 such plays in 10 games. USC, meanwhile, had 17 20-plus yard plays … after two.
Oregon has been especially good at limiting those plays on the ground. The Ducks have given up just three explosive runs all year.
“We’re going to have to do what we’ve done all year,” Riley said. “It’s a strength of ours. It’s a strength of theirs. All that is typical of games like this.”
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Safety net
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USC could be without two critical pieces of its secondary, just as its set to face one of the best pass games in the Big Ten.
Starting safeties Bishop Fitzgerald and Kamari Ramsey left last Saturday’s game win over Iowa with injuries. Ramsey dressed for practice and was limited this week, while Fitzgerald appears unlikely to play.
Christian Pierce is expected to play a larger role with at least one out of the lineup, while sophomore Kennedy Urlacher is certain to receive an extended opportunity at safety. Urlacher made the decisive pass break-up in the fourth quarter of last week’s win over Iowa.
The post USC vs. Oregon: Lincoln Riley embraces pressure of playing for a playoff bid appeared first on Los Angeles Times.
